Quantifying the Energy and Infrastructure Requirements for the Planned EV Transition
IEEE recently published a detailed 49 page study that demonstrates how staggering the challenge is for this transition that policy makers have created. Below are some straightforward calculations that quantify the scale of what is required.
This discussion begins with the annual Sankey diagram from LLNL for 2021.
A major take-away is that Transportation consumed 26.9 quads out of the 97.3 quads produced in 2021. Of this 24.3 originated from petroleum. The balance originated from Biomass and Natural Gas as well as a tiny amount (0.02 quads) from Electricity Generation.
From this 26.9 quads only 5.65 quads actually power the movement of vehicles while 21.2 quads goes into waste heat, which demonstrates the poor efficiency of gas/diesel/fuel-burning engines. This is compared to EVs as seen in the following.
Given that the national goal is to completely replace the carbon based fuels and their engines in Transportation (petroleum, biomass, and natural gas) with EVs, where will the required quads of energy come from that feed Electricity Generation?
In answering this question one first notes that since EVs are much more efficient, and not all of the 26.9 quads need replacement. This is quantified in the Yale reference for many of the sources (figure below).
To start with one can accept the efficiency of EVs as depicted above where 90 % of the energy delivered to the vehicle is used for motion. Therefore, the 5.65 quads output requires 6.3 quads delivered. Reference to the Sankey diagram reveals that the tiny 0.02 quads must grow immensely to match the 6.3 quads. This distribution infrastructure, which is largely transmission lines and transformers, must be constructed and provided beyond the existing infrastructure. Reference to the same diagram shows the existing infrastructure delivers about 12.9 quads to other uses. Therefore, nationally the distribution infrastructure must be expanded and/or upgraded by an incredible 50 % to 19.2 quads! (Associated with and unique to this added/upgraded distribution infrastructure is a national network of dedicated EV chargers that also must be considered and does not sufficiently exist today. The number of chargers existing today must grow more than 300 times in order to begin meeting the demand.)
That is half the story. How much new Electricity Generation must be created to deliver into the grid the 6.3 quads depends upon the source (natural gas, solar, wind power). One can reference the Yale study to get a handle on this.
Clearly, Coal is not to be considered, and Hydropower is quite limited. Nuclear power is also not likely to be considered. Referring to the Sankey diagram one presently identifies only Natural Gas, Solar Power, and Wind Power as practical candidates. It is clear that the nation is likely to end up building some mix of the three to achieve the goal. An emphasis will likely be upon building Solar and Wind Power to the extent practical since these sources will be much more efficient than Natural Gas, an estimate for both being similar to Hydropower at only 10 % power plant loss. However, Natural Gas will likely supply a significant proportion with a much larger power plant loss of 56 %.
In order to demonstrate the immensity of the challenge involved in developing the needed 6.3 quads from these sources, two calculations can be made. One is worst case, that is all comes from Natural Gas at 56 % power plant efficiency, and the other is best case, that it all comes from Solar plus Wind Power at 90 % power plant efficiency.
- All Natural Gas: 6.3 / 0.56 = 11.3 quads of Natural Gas powered plants will need to be constructed. This will require a doubling of the existing 11.6 quads to 22.9 quads!
- All Solar/Wind Power: 6.3/0.90 = 7.0 quads. The existing 4.33 quads will need to grow 2.6 times to 11.7 quads!
As stated a mix of these is likely, but in all cases the challenge is massive and how this can come about nationally in a decade or two is seriously questionable.
Note: In this same time frame Electricity Generation will also need to replace 4.82 quads of Natural Gas presently used in Residential given the present policy.
References:
“The EV Transition”, IEEE Spectrum eBook, April, 2023, 49 pages.
